Europe is locking down a second time. But what is its long-term plan?

Europe is locking down a second time. But what is its long-term plan? New measures seek to lower the spread of the coronavirus, but some scientists say Europe should eliminate it Science | AAAS

 ...Most countries are reacting without a long-term plan, simply trying to avoid the worst. Officials differ about the best way to bring the numbers down again, and how low a level they should strive for. And no one knows what comes next. Short of vaccines to save the day, countries may face an exhausting series of lockdowns—a sawtooth pattern, “up and down and up and down,” that could wreck the economy, says Albert Osterhaus, a virologist at the University of Veterinary Medicine, Hanover. “There is no strategy in Europe,” he concludes.

The lockdown seemed an almost shockingly blunt tool when China first applied it in Hubei province on 23 January. But it also proved remarkably effective, and countries around the world took the same approach in the spring, although with varying degrees of intensity.

Europe has had a more science-driven pandemic response than the United States, but unlike many Asian countries, it was unable to avert a resurgence. Instead of using the summer to drive cases down to practically zero, Europe celebrated the holiday season. People seemed to lose their fear of the virus, says Michael Meyer-Hermann, a modeler at the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research who was involved in drawing up Germany’s lockdown plans. They increasingly flouted rules on physical distancing, mask wearing, and avoiding large gatherings.

“The infectious seeds in the community have always remained above a certain threshold, where if you relax the physical distancing, it’s all going to come back,” says University of Hong Kong epidemiologist Gabriel Leung. Numbers crept up and overwhelmed the other pillar of virus control, which some countries never managed well to begin with: testing, isolating cases, and tracing and quarantining their contacts. ..

The fact that life has largely moved indoors in recent weeks likely aided the resurgence, and cooler air may also favor the virus. “

Not everyone is convinced lockdowns are the answer. On 28 October, the day Chancellor Angela Merkel announced the new measures, Germany’s National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians presented a strategy paper arguing against a lockdown. ... Another co-author, virologist Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit of the Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, is convinced Germany’s prelockdown restrictions would be enough to keep the virus from resurging—if they were strictly followed. ...