US coronavirus infections drop below 30,000 daily for first time in 11 months n continuing sign of recovery

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Sat, 2021-05-22 16:13 — mike kraft

Coronavirus infections drop below 30,000 daily in continuing sign of recovery Experts debate how to track the pandemic’s next stage, with the CDC criticized after it halts a count of ‘breakthrough infections’ in people with no symptoms. Lenny Bernstein, Joel Achenbach Washington Post

For the first time in 11 months, the daily average of new coronavirus infections in the United States has fallen below 30,000 amid continuing signs that most communities across the nation are emerging from the worst of the pandemic.

The seven-day average dipped to 27,815 on Friday, the lowest since June 22 and less than a tenth of the infection rate during the winter surge, according to state health department data compiled by The Washington Post.

The pandemic map remains speckled with hot spots, including parts of the Deep South, the Rocky Mountains and the Pacific Northwest. At the local level, progress against the contagion has not been uniform as some communities struggle with inequities in vaccine distribution and in the health impacts of the virus.

But the vast bulk of the American landscape has turned pale green, the color-code for “low or moderate” viral burden, in a Covid-19 Community Profile Report released this week by the Biden administration. The report showed 694 counties still have “high” levels of transmission, less than half as many as in mid-April.

The big question now is whether the virus will be thoroughly squelched through mounting vaccinations — or whether it will smolder in areas with low immunization rates and potentially flare when colder weather returns, said David Rubin, director of PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, which has been modeling the outbreak for more than a year.

Rubin said the answer will depend in large measure on the individual choices of tens of millions of Americans, especially whether they get immunized.

“If we’re continuing to have disease reservoirs and we have areas with low vaccinations, it’ll hang on until the fall and start to pick up pace again. It’ll find pockets where there are unvaccinated individuals, and have these sporadic outbreaks,” Rubin said.

One prominent model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, forecasts fewer than 7,000 daily cases by mid-August and fewer than 120 deaths, which is about one-fifth the current number — levels not seen since March 2020, soon after the virus first seeded itself in the United States.

The same modelers believe the virus will have some form of resurgence in the colder months that follow, and people who had stopped wearing masks would need to resume wearing them to limit viral spread. Scientists remain concerned about virus variants, some of which have mutations that limit but do not completely block the protective effects of vaccines. ...

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